tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post2378286155635327356..comments2024-02-09T18:16:45.614+00:00Comments on The Psy-Fi Blog: The Case Against Re-Emerging Marketstimarrhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06254802085744425067noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post-47114665486759477742010-02-22T16:31:44.482+00:002010-02-22T16:31:44.482+00:00Still, if it were easy everyone would be doing it ...<i>Still, if it were easy everyone would be doing it ...</i><br /><br />You need to consider the counter-argument re this one, Tim. <br /><br />That's a joke -- kinda, sorta.<br /><br />RobRob Bennetthttp://arichlife.passionsaving.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post-11840010407256572212010-02-21T22:04:37.784+00:002010-02-21T22:04:37.784+00:00Countries with high growth potential do not offer ...Countries with high growth potential do not offer good equity investment opportunities unless valuations are low. <br /><br />http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=667507<br /><br />Chinese sayings:<br /><br />Water can both sustain and sink a ship.<br />Count not what is lost, but what is left.<br />A little impatience will spoil great plans.<br />Wise men may not be learned and learned men may not be wise.keith piccirillonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post-36738904462911639092010-02-21T16:35:54.860+00:002010-02-21T16:35:54.860+00:00Hi Parker Bohn
It was unpredictable that markets ...Hi Parker Bohn<br /><br /><i>It was unpredictable that markets would crash on October 29, 1929, but it was predictable that markets were overvalued and overbought, and thus prone to crashing.</i><br /><br />Well, maybe. I've been researching bubble indicators and it's not so clear as we may think, see: <a href="http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/Bierman.crash" rel="nofollow">The 1929 Stock Market Crash</a>. I think there's a real risk of hindsight bias in believing that these events were predictable.<br /><br />On the other hand this excellent paper by James Montier argues that the latest crisis was an entirely predictable White Swan: <a href="http://www.chcoach.com/uploaded/files/0904%20White%20Swans%20-%20Montier.pdf" rel="nofollow">White Swans, Revulsion and Value</a>.<br /><br />Both, of course, could be true: and the "fact" that the most recent crisis was predictable may mean we sleepwalk into the next one that isn't. Still, if it were easy everyone would be doing it ...timarrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06254802085744425067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post-5505325695290061782010-02-21T14:34:21.626+00:002010-02-21T14:34:21.626+00:00I spend at least as much time and effort searching...I spend at least as much time and effort searching for counterarguments as I do with any other investing activity (unless you count reading blogs as an 'investing activity'!)<br /><br />That said, let me nit-pick one of the arguments - the one against market timing.<br /><br />It is true that any investment has the vast majority of its gains and losses come from a very few days, however these days are not randomly distributed.<br />It was unpredictable that markets would crash on October 29, 1929, but it was predictable that markets were overvalued and overbought, and thus prone to crashing. <br />The same thing is true on the up-side. There are a lot more catalysts that will (unpredictably) boost an under-valued asset than an over-valued asset.<br /><br />That said, I'm finding no bargains in emerging markets these days and I've sold off my China & India ETFs, though I still hold DEM and DGS, which are broader emerging markets plays.Parker Bohnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post-86170437440955314802010-02-20T15:19:53.129+00:002010-02-20T15:19:53.129+00:00Never Forget the Counterarguments
Those four word...<i>Never Forget the Counterarguments</i><br /><br />Those four words are really the secret of all investing success.<br /><br />The problem is that, once we put our money into something, we become <i>emotionally</i> invested in it and cannot think straight about it. All the great information bits in the world are not going to help us at that point.<br /><br />I believe that the key to successful investing is building processes that gently nudge you at all times and in all circumstances to <b>Never Forget the Counterarguments.</b><br /><br />RobRob Bennetthttp://arichlife.passionsaving.comnoreply@blogger.com