tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post8453126832660738082..comments2009-12-28T13:51:12.083Ztimarrhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06254802085744425067noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post-39155144911666307612009-12-28T13:51:12.083Z2009-12-28T13:51:12.083ZIt is certainly true that certain types of forecasts have a poor track record. <br /><br />It is also certainly true that not to forecast at all transforms investing into gambling. If you have zero idea what is going to happen with your money, you might as well put it all into lottery tickets, no?<br /><br />It seems to me that the goal should be to distinguish the types of forecasts that work from the types of forecast that do not work.<br /><br />The historical record provides impressive evidence that short-term forecasts do not work. So I agree that we should not take predictions about what is going to happen in a year or two seriously.<br /><br />On the other hand, that same historical record offers equally impressive evidence that long-term forecasts based on valuations <i>always</i> work. I think it makes as much sense to be certain to examine the forecasts that always work as it does to avoid those that do not.<br /><br />Investors are always going to pay attention to forecasts. It&#39;s their money at risk. This can never change. But we <i>can</i> change the types of forecasts they look at by educating them as to what sorts of forecasts work and what sorts do not.<br /><br />RobRob Bennetthttp://arichlife.passionsaving.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post-17392097605079858572009-12-27T10:47:28.025Z2009-12-27T10:47:28.025ZIt is of course perfectly possible for a forecast to be eventually proved correct. However, the reason things turn out the way they do many not always be what was forecast. <br /><br />Being right for the wrong reason is another complication when analysing the gurus.Robnoreply@blogger.com