tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post392136736463682191..comments2024-07-05T07:11:24.588+01:00Comments on The Psy-Fi Blog: Bayesian Unreason in the Modern Worldtimarrhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06254802085744425067noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post-90376997673611557442014-06-02T09:37:05.998+01:002014-06-02T09:37:05.998+01:00Griffith and Tenenbaum resolve this by relying on ...Griffith and Tenenbaum resolve this by relying on the Copernican anthropic principle which argues that:<br /><br /> “The location of your birth in space and time in the Universe is privileged (or special) only to the extent implied by the fact that you are an intelligent observer, that your location among intelligent observers is not special but rather picked at random”<br /><br />And did they know that this principle is sufficient for the doomsday argument. For example, consider the world ends in 20 years versus the world goes on for 300 years. IN the latter case we expect there to have been 200 bn people, in the former about 10bn, so, given that principle, it is twenty times as likely that you are in the former 10bn than the latter 200bn. Obviously I'm giving a very swift version of the argument just to give you the flavour: there's a whole literature on it.Nicholas Shackelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08546205932263959250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post-77487083164987874112012-11-24T10:11:13.637+00:002012-11-24T10:11:13.637+00:00"the best description I’ve found is here: htt..."the best description I’ve found is here: http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes"<br /><br />hmmmm ............... well i found it extremely wordy; so much so that i found it was quicker to work out the answer ot the problem he poses than to plod through his explanation! in fact you can figure out the answer without knowing anything about bayes<br /><br /><br />the big problem with bayes theorem is you often dont know what all the probablities are and that seriousy limits its useschoberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04206739004598174545noreply@blogger.com