tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post2440462377148295660..comments2024-07-05T07:11:24.588+01:00Comments on The Psy-Fi Blog: Physics Risk Isn't Market Uncertaintytimarrhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06254802085744425067noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post-75545286097316246222010-06-29T11:19:02.127+01:002010-06-29T11:19:02.127+01:00The problem is not a lack of mathematical knowledg...The problem is not a lack of mathematical knowledge amongst CEOs; it is precisely the fact that their lack of mathematical knowledge makes them unwilling to challenge mathematical models. Humility and a tendency to explain 'where the model will fail' are not notable qualities amongst modellers. However, this does not stop quantitative financiers from complaining that they had been 'misunderstood'. This is nonsense; Quants are more responsible than anybody else for allowing people to work on the basis of a single, "probable" (according to some sophisticated model), <i>'expected'</i> outcome, rather than understanding that <i>the actual outcome is hardly ever that expected</i>. (The expected value of a one dollar bet on the toss of a coin is zero - but that outcome will never happen).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7366878066073177705.post-43114404663078510062010-06-26T17:25:31.463+01:002010-06-26T17:25:31.463+01:00Confidence sells. Humility works.
RobConfidence sells. Humility works.<br /><br />RobRob Bennetthttp://arichlife.passionsaving.comnoreply@blogger.com